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Cycle Framework Insights
Your Economist on Demand

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CFI is proud to offer tailored packages for VIP clientele and financial institutions with

on-demand access to Chief Strategist, Bryan Jordan. Please inquire for pricing.

CFI On Demand "Best Efforts" Pricing

NEW! We now offer our services on an a la carte basis. If you need to connect with us for a one-off service, you can pay as you go. Additionally, you can decide what our time is worth to you, by paying us on a "best efforts" basis. Just use the form provided here.

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Now Offering 

CFI Technical Rundown

Elite members will now be receiving a daily report directly to their inbox, with technical security analysis to assist you in making your trading decisions.

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The new report includes:

  • Daily technical chart

  • Technical setups for the S&P 500 and the 10-year treasury

  • "Buy and Sell" security ideas based on technical analysis

  • Overbought and oversold securities (explanation footnoted in the report)

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Sample of the CFI Technical Rundown provided in the button below. Please note that the report provided is using data as of 12/15/2025 and insights after that date are subject to change.

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Introducing the Cycle Framework

Our mission at CFI is to provide thoughtful and well researched macro-economic
and financial market insights to help our clientele make well informed investment decisions.


Through 2 ½ years of proprietary research and back-testing, the cycle framework was developed via
rigorous theoretical, historical, and quantitative analysis. It reflects four bedrock principles to produce optimized allocation recommendations in all phases of the cycle.

Principle #1

Systems Beat Human Judgment

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Beginning with Paul Meehl’s Clinical versus Statistical Prediction in 1954, studies have consistently shown that mathematical algorithms, no matter how simple, have stronger predictive abilities than even expert human judgment.

 

A 2000 University of Minnesota meta-analysis, for example, found that rules-based statistical approaches consistently produced better results than ad-hoc decision making.

Principle #2

It’s Not Different

This Time

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History suggests that the divergent popular narratives attached to each business cycle (the energy crises
of the 1970s, the tech boom of the 1990s, the housing boom of the 2000s, etc.) mask a set of common underlying drivers in virtually all cases.

 

Because these patterns repeat from cycle to cycle, the market
environments that they give rise to are largely predictable.

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Principle #3

Money Drives the Business Cycle

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While there are countless factors that influence fluctuations in economic growth, the flow of money is
the predominant determinant of the cycle itself.

 

For this reason, the stance of monetary policy is the most important indicator of sustained movements in GDP, inflation, and the labor market.

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Principle #4

The Macro Drives

the Market

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Market movements are similarly a function of a relentless day-to-day news flow over shorter-term
periods, but over time react overwhelmingly to the macroeconomic backdrop.

 

It is no coincidence that
the strongest rallies in risk assets in recent decades (late 1990s, early 2020s) took place amid booming economic growth while the deepest downturns (mid-1970s, late 2000s) came alongside

deep recessions.

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